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Home > Weather and Earthquakes > Tropical Cyclone Information

50kt Wind Probability:

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50kt Wind Probability of
Prefecture
50kt Wind Probability is the probability of entering area where sustained winds, on account of tropical cyclones, greater than 50 knots may blow sometime during the specified forecast period at each sub-division of prefectures. There are 374 subdivisions in total.
50kt Wind Probability is issued for each sub-division where the probability is expected to exceed 0.5 percent within 72 hours. It is issued at around 01, 07, 13 and 19 UTC, based on analyses and forecasts of the tropical cyclone at 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC, respectively.
A period with rapidly increasing (decreasing) probability indicates a more likely period of entering (getting out of) the area where sustained winds, on account of tropical cyclones, greater than 50kt winds may blow sometime during the specified forecast period. It is at around the peak of the probability when the prefecture will be most likely to be in the area.