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Numerical Weather Prediction Activities

As a pioneer among Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers, JMA has actively developed its suite of NWP systems since such prediction was begun in 1959. As a globally contributor to the field, the Agency today outputs a variety of NWP products to support National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in the provision of effective and efficient services.

JMA's NWP Strategic Plan Toward 2030

Meteorological Operation Focusing on Science and Technology Toward 2030 (a recommendation formulated by the Meteorological Subcommittee under the Council of Transport Policy implemented by Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism) is intended to help prevent and mitigate natural disasters and improve socioeconomic productivity. Based on the direction suggested in this recommendation, JMA’s NWP Strategic Plan Toward 2030 actively promotes steady technical development in numerical weather prediction as part of social information infrastructure in disaster prevention and related fields.


Numerical Weather Prediction Models and related Application

JMA currently operates the following NWP models:
  1. The Global Spectral Model (GSM) for daily forecasts, tropical cyclone information and one-week forecasts up to 11 days ahead covering the entire globe
  2. The Meso-Scale Model (MSM) for weather warnings/advisories, very short-range forecasts of precipitation and aviation forecasts covering Japan and its environs, providing 51 and 39-hour forecasts every 3 hours
  3. The Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) with the same configuration as the MSM for prediction uncertainly estimation of the MSM prediction, providing 39-hour forecasts every 6 hours
  4. The Local Forecast Model (LFM) for aviation forecasts, weather warnings/advisories and very short-range forecasts of precipitation for Japan and its environs, providing 10-hour forecasts every hour
  5. The Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) based on a low-resolution version of the GSM for tropical cyclone information, one-week forecasts, two-week temperature forecasts, early warning information on extreme weather and one-month forecasts
  6. An ensemble prediction system based on an atmosphere-ocean coupled model for three-month forecasts, warm-season outlooks, cold-season outlooks and El Niño outlooks
  7. Other NWP models for specific targets such as ocean waves and sea ice extents

JMA also uses NWP models in relation to atmospheric environmental issues, as exemplified by its Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) work under the framework of WMO's Emergency Response Activities (ERA) programme for environmental emergency response activities in Asia. The Center provides NMHSs with outlooks on the diffusion and deposition of hazardous materials based on JMA's Atmospheric Transport Model in the event of the accidental release of such materials from nuclear facilities.

GSM       MSM and LFM
Domains and topography of JMA's NWP models


Specifications of JMA's NWP models
Global Spectral Model (GSM) Meso-Scale Model (MSM) Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) Local Forecast Model (LFM) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System
Purposes Daily forecasts, Tropical cyclone information
and
One-week forecasts
Weather warnings/advisories,
Very short-range forecasts of precipitation
and
Aviation forecasts
Tropical cyclone information One-week forecasts Two-week temperature forecasts,
Early warning information on extreme weather
One-month forecasts Three-month forecasts,
Warm-season outlooks,
Cold-season outlooks
and
El Niño outlooks
Forecast domain Globe Japan and its environs Globe
Grid size and/or number of grids 0.1875 deg. (TL959) 5 km/
817 x 661
2 km/
1,581 x 1,301
0.375 deg. (TL479) 0.5625 deg. (TL319) Atmosphere
1.125 deg. (TL159)

Ocean
0.3-0.5 x 1.0 deg.
Vertical levels/Top 128/0.01 hPa 76/
21.8 km
76/
21.8 km
128/0.01 hPa Atmosphere
60/0.1 hPa

Ocean
52 layers and a bottom boundary layer
Forecast range (Initial time)/number of ensemble members 132 hours (06, 18 UTC)
264 hours (00, 12 UTC)
51 hours (00, 12 UTC)
39 hours (03, 06, 09, 15, 18, 21 UTC)
39 hours (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC)


21
members
10 hours (hourly) 5.5 days (06, 18 UTC)*


51
members
11 days (00, 12 UTC)


51
members
18 days
(12 UTC)



51
members
34 days (12 UTC; twice a week)

25
members
7 months (00 UTC; every pentad)


13
members
Initial condition Hybrid
4D-Var Analysis***
4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis with ensemble perturbations 3D-Var Analysis Global analysis with ensemble perturbations JRA-55 Reanalysis and MOVE/MRI.COM-G2 with ensemble perturbations
* Forecasts from initial times at 06 and 18 UTC are operated when any of the following conditions is satisfied at the initial times:(i) A tropical cyclone (TC) of tropical storm (TS**) intensity or higher is present in the RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center’s area of responsibility (0 - 60°N, 100°E - 180°);(ii) A TC is expected to reach TS intensity or higher in the area within the next 24 hours;(iii) A TC of TS intensity or higher is expected to move into the area within the next 24 hours. ** A TS is defined as a TC with maximum sustained wind speeds of 34 knots or more and less than 48 knots. *** Ensemble forecasts initialized with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter are used as part of background error covariances in 4D-Var.
More about JMA's Numerical Weather Prediction


Major Progress in NWP Systems

Global Spectral Model and Ensemble Prediction Systems

In 2007, horizontal resolution was enhanced from 55 to 20 km for the Global Spectral Model (GSM) and from 110 to 55 km for the One-week Ensemble Prediction System. At the same time, the number of vertical layers was enhanced from 40 to 60 for both models.
In 2008, the Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System was put into operation.
In 2013, the range of the forecast runs at 12 UTC was extended from 216 to 264 hours for both the GSM and the One-week Ensemble Prediction System.
In 2014, JMA enhanced the horizontal resolution of the One-week Ensemble Prediction System from 55 to 40 km, and also increased the operation frequency and the number of ensemble members per day. The GSM was further enhanced by increasing the number of vertical layers from 60 to 100, raising the top level from 0.1 to 0.01 hPa and revising the physical processes involved. In addition, the Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System was upgraded by enhancing horizontal resolution from 55 to 40 km and the number of ensemble members from 11 to 25. The details of improvements implemented in 2014 are summarized in the Joint WMO Technical Progress Report on the Global Data Processing and Forecasting System and Numerical Weather Prediction Research Activities for 2014.
In 2017, the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) was introduced as a unification of the Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System, the One-week Ensemble Prediction System and the One-month Ensemble Prediction System.
In 2018, the range of forecast runs at 00, 06 and 18 UTC was extended from 84 to 132 hours for the GSM.
In 2020, the range of forecast runs at 00 UTC was extended from 132 to 264 hours for the GSM.
In 2021, the number of vertical layers was increased from 100 to 128 for the GSM and the GEPS. In addition, the numbers of GEPS ensemble members per initial time were increased from 27 to 51 for 11-day forecasts, from 13 to 51 for two-week forecasts and from 13 to 25 for one-month forecasts. At the same time, the frequency of two-week and one-month forecasts was changed from twice a day (00, 12UTC) to once a day (12UTC).

Meso-Scale Model

In 2013, the forecast domain was enlarged and the range of forecast was extended to 39 hours for all eight daily operations (one every three hours).
In 2019, the range of forecast runs at 00 and 12 UTC was extended from 39 to 51 hours.
In 2020, a 4D-Var method based on JMA's nonhydrostatic ASUCA model was incorporated into the operational meso-scale data assimilation system.

Meso-Scale Ensemble Prediction System

In 2019, JMA began operating the Meso-Scale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) with a control run equal to MSM prediction, and perturbed runs with the same configuration as the MSM with 20 members.

Local Forecast Model

In 2012, JMA began operating the Local Forecast Model (LFM) with a horizontal resolution of 2 km for eastern Japan every three hours. Particular focus was placed on creating nine-hour predictions for timely provision of fine-grid forecasts to support aeronautical operation, especially in the vicinity of Tokyo International Airport (Haneda).
In 2013, the LFM was modified to cover the whole of Japan and run every hour for more sophisticated meteorological forecasts to further support disaster risk reduction and safer flights over the nation.
In 2019, the range of forecast was extended from 9 to 10 hours for all 24 daily operations (every hour).
In 2021, the number of vertical layers was increased from 58 to 76.

Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System

In 2015, JMA updated its Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System. Changes included enhancement of the horizontal and vertical resolutions of the atmospheric model from 180 to 110 km and from 40 to 60 levels with the top level moved from 0.4 to 0.1 hPa, expansion of the target area to the whole globe in the oceanic model, and introduction of a sea-ice model.