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Numerical Weather Prediction Activities

As a pioneer among Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers, JMA has continued the active development of a suite of numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems since the commencement of operational numerical prediction in 1959. In its role as one of the world's most advanced NWP centers, JMA today outputs a variety of NWP products to support National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in the provision of effective and efficient services.

Numerical Weather Prediction Models and related Application

JMA currently operates the following NWP models:
  1. The Global Spectral Model (GSM) for short- and medium-range forecasts up to 11 days ahead covering the entire globe
  2. The Meso-Scale Model (MSM) for warnings, very-short-range forecasts and aviation forecasts covering Japan and its surrounding areas, providing 39-hour forecasts every 3 hours
  3. The Local Forecast Model (LFM) for disaster risk reduction and aviation forecasts covering Japan and its surrounding areas, providing 9-hour forecasts every hour
  4. Ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) based on a low-resolution version of the GSM for one-week forecasts, typhoon track forecasts and one-month forecasts
  5. An ensemble prediction system based on an atmosphere-ocean coupled model for long-range forecasts up to six months ahead and the El Niño outlook
  6. Other NWP models for specific targets such as ocean waves and sea ice extents

JMA also uses NWP models in relation to atmospheric environmental issues, as exemplified by its work as a Regional Spcialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) under the framework of WMO's Emergency Response Activities (ERA) programme for environmental emergency response activities in Asia. The Center provides NMHSs with outlooks on the diffusion and deposition of hazardous materials based on JMA's Atmospheric Transport Model in the event of the accidental release of such materials from nuclear facilities.

GSM       MSM and LFM
Domains and topography of JMA's NWP models

Global Spectral Model (GSM) Meso-Scale Model (MSM) Local Forecast Model (LFM) Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System One-week Ensemble Prediction System One-month Ensemble Prediction System Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System
Purposes Short- and medium-range forecasts Very-short-range forecasts, aviation forecasts Typhoon track forecasts One-week forecasts One-month forecasts Three-month, warm/cold season and El Niño outlooks
Forecast domain Globe Japan and its surrounding areas Japan and its surrounding areas Globe
Grid size and/or number of grids 0.1875 deg. (TL959) 5 km/817 x 661 2 km/1,581 x 1,301 0.375 deg. (TL479) 0.5625 deg. (TL319) Atmosphere 1.875 deg. (TL95)
Ocean 0.3-10.0 x 1.0 deg.
Vertical levels/Top 100/0.01 hPa 50/21.8 km 60/20.2 km 60/0.1 hPa Atmosphere 40/0.4 hPa
Ocean 50 layers
Forecast range (Initial time)/number of ensemble members 84 hours (00, 06, 18 UTC)
264 hours (12 UTC)
39 hours (00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18, 21 UTC) 9 hours (hourly) 5.5 days (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC)

25 members
11 days (00, 12 UTC)

27 members
34 days (12 UTC; once a week)
18 days (12 UTC; once a week)

50 members in all
210 days (00 UTC; once a month)

51 members in all
Initial condition 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis 3D-Var Analysis Global analysis with ensemble perturbations
Specifications of JMA's NWP models
More about JMA's Numerical Weather Prediction

Major Progress in NWP Systems

Global Spectral Model/Ensemble Prediction Systems

In 2007, horizontal resolution was improved from 55 to 20 km for the Global Spectral Model (GSM) and from 110 to 55 km for the One-week Ensemble Prediction System. At the same time, the number of vertical layers was increased from 40 to 60 for both models. In 2008, the Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System was put into operation. In 2013, the range of the forecast run at 12 UTC was extended from 216 to 264 hours for both the GSM and the One-week Ensemble Prediction System.
In 2014, JMA improved the horizontal resolution of the One-week Ensemble Prediction System from 55 to 40 km, and also increased the operation frequency and the number of ensemble members per day. It further improved the GSM by increasing the number of vertical layers from 60 to 100, raising its top level from 0.1 to 0.01 hPa and revising the physical processes involved. In addition, the Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System was improved by increasing the horizontal resolution from 55 to 40 km and the number of ensemble members from 11 to 25.

Meso-Scale Model

In 2009, JMA's Nonhydrostatic model-based Variational Analysis Data Assimilation (JNoVA) 4D-Var replaced Hydrostatic 4D-Var as the operational meso-scale data assimilation system. In 2013, the forecast domain was enlarged and the forecast period was extended to 39 hours for all eight daily operations (one every three hours).

Local Forecast Model

In 2012, JMA began operating the Local Forecast Model (LFM) with a horizontal resolution of 2 km for eastern Japan every three hours with a particular focus on creating nine-hour predictions for timely provision of fine-grid forecasts to support aeronautical operation, especially in the vicinity of Tokyo International Airport (Haneda). In 2013, the LFM was modified to cover the whole of Japan and to run every hour for more sophisticated meteorological forecasts to further support disaster risk reduction and safer flights over the nation.

Coupled Model

In 2010, the atmosphere-ocean coupled model was introduced within the ensemble forecasting system for long-range forecasts. The model had already been used for the El Niño outlook.