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RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center

Technical Review No.2  (March 1998)

   Enhanced Accuracy of Typhoon Prediction of the Advanced Numerical Models at JMA
  Masashi NAGATA, Yoshihiko TAHARA, Chiashi MUROI
  Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

 The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) made major revisions on the numerical analysis and prediction models in March 1996. The revisions have lead to enhancement of accuracy of the typhoon track predictions of these models. The large northward drifting bias has been eliminated, while slow-speed bias has newly emerged in particular after recurvature of typhoons.
  It is shown that the accuracy of typhoon track prediction of the global model has become nearly equal to those of other major numerical weather prediction centers. Besides that limited-area typhoon model shows smaller errors in typhoon intensity prediction than the persistency method in predictions beyond T+24 h.
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