Mitsuru UENO, Kazutoshi ONOGI
Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

   Tropical cyclone bogussing procedure for numerical models at the JMA was improved. A statistical verification study revealed that the initial fields derived through the new bogussing procedure are more realistic and thus improve the prediction of tropical cyclones track forecasts especially in low latitudes.

Atsushi BABA
Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

   An algorithm for moisture estimation from the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) cloud data adopted by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is presented. The satellite-derived moisture data have been utilized in routine moisture analyses at the JMA since 1983. In the algorithm, cloud conditions are classified into 320 categories in reference to the GMS cloud data such as cloudiness and cloud-top equivalent black body temperature (T_BB) together with synoptic observations, and a typical moisture profile is determined for each of the categories based on the statistical relationship. Thus, vertical moisture profiles are objectively estimated as a function of the cloud condition.

Shoji KUSUNOKI
Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

   A pair of tropical cyclone (or a cyclone pair) formed in January 1992 was successfully predicted by the global spectral model of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). This study examines the capability of the model in tropical cyclone forecasting with their occurrence, and discusses the relationship between cyclone pairs and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).